Following on from my last blog post I look further here into what
the future might look like. I am following the premise that if in one way or
another, the world is eventually ecologically devastated and industrial
societies do slowly, or rapidly, collapse would a Mad Max like world emerge?
What might a future society look like and would it in turn survive very long?
I recently went to see Mad Max: Fury Road. A film
in which one of the worst possible futures mentioned in my last article has
come to pass. In the wake of nuclear war and environmental degradation
civilisation has collapsed and the people who are left have gone, well, rather
mad! The straggler society that emerged in Mad Max is a brutal dictatorship
where women are treated as chattel and the omnipresence of death is palpable.
Hopefully this will not be the future in reality as if so there will be
precious few of us to see it and probably even fewer who would want to.
Something else that comes through in the film (without giving away
too much of the plot) is that though we might not necessarily be able to do
anything about the grand tides of history and the situation we find ourselves
in we can do something about the sort of company we choose to keep and how we
conduct ourselves.
If in one way or another, the world is eventually ecologically
devastated and industrial societies do slowly, or rapidly, collapse would a Mad
Max like world emerge? What might a future society look like and would it in
turn survive very long?
There is of course no certain answer to this, though it is
certainly possible to imagine. The form it takes in Mad Max is ‘the citadel’:
Technologically the society in Mad Max is quite well positioned.
The Citadel has cranes and wind turbines (most likely for some electricity
generation and for pumping water from deep underground aquifers). The system of
cogs and gears that runs the access gate to the fortification is also hand operated.
That sort of technology (with a few metallurgy skills) will last! It also
has intensive agricultural production in a defensible position elevated out of
way of most desert dust storms.
Socially, however, it is a monstrosity. In this regard its long
term prospects look far more dubious as it stands. If a society were to emerge
from the ruins of an old one as well as a suite of example technologies that
might have a chance of lasting into the future there are a number of social
factors that need to be present as well; The society has to be able to maintain
itself as a culture and want to pass on technological traditions, as well as
not destroying itself through infighting, being absorbed or obliterated by
their neighbours or by destroying its ecological foundations.
A writer I rather like, Dimitri Orlov, has done some excellent
citizen-science style anthropology work looking at the question as to what sort
of societies endure. He looked around the world at communities that abide for
many generations as their own entities maintaining their own way of life and
having healthy offspring who in turn do the same with theirs. These societies
varied greatly in the sorts of adversity they faced and in the ways they lived.
Orlov came across some general themes about how those communities organised
themselves that are some good ground rules if you want to endure as a
community. He (as part of a much larger body of work) came up with a list of 13
commandments which I have provided an abbreviated version of below.
1. You Probably Shouldn't come
together willy-nilly and form a community out of people that just
happen to be hanging around, who don't have to do much of anything to join, and
feel free to leave as soon as they get bored or it stops being fun.
2. You Probably
Shouldn't trap people within the community. Membership in the community should to be voluntary. Every member
must have an iron-clad guarantee of being able to leave, no questions asked.
That said, do everything you can to keep people from leaving because defections
are very bad for morale.
3. You Probably Shouldn't carry on
as if the community doesn't matter. The community should see itself as
separate and distinct from the surrounding society
4. You Probably
Shouldn't spread out across the landscape. The community should be relatively self-contained. It cannot be
virtual or only come together periodically.
5. You Probably Shouldn't allow
creeping privatization. The community should pool and share all
property and resources with the exception of personal effects.
6. You Probably
Shouldn't try to figure out what to do on your own. The community should have collective goals and needs that are
made explicit.
7. You Probably Shouldn't let
outsiders order you around. It's best if the community itself is the
ultimate source of authority for all of its members.
8. You Probably
Shouldn't question the wonderful goodness of your community. Your community should have moral authority and meaning to those
within it.
9. You Probably Shouldn't pretend
that your life is more important than the life of your children and
grandchildren (or other members' children and grandchildren if you
don't have any of your own).
10. You Probably Shouldn’t try to use
violence, because it probably won't work.
11. You Probably Shouldn’t let your community get
too big. When it has grown beyond 150 adult members, it's time to bud
off a colony.
12. You Probably Shouldn't let your
community get too rich. Material gratification, luxury and
lavish lifestyles re not good for your community.
13. You Probably Shouldn't let your community get
too cosy with the neighbours. Always keep in mind what made you form
the community in the first place.
Now this is a very general list – you may, for
example, in a Mad Max world not really have any neighbours! I think it does
provide a useful template though for the sorts of social set ups that have long
term viability. Hierarchical societies can endure for centuries but they are
often are not the most pleasant places to live and tend to use resources in a
rather extravagant way. In the long run egalitarian societies have a better
shelf life as well as tending to be a lot more pleasant to be in. A more
cooperative equal society in a Mad Max style world most likely has much better
long term prospects.
Such a society would not come about by itself though. Human beings
can live in socially constructive, ecologically benign ways but we are not
inherently predisposed to doing so. It may be that the rise and fall of civilisations
is something outside the agency of individual people or political movements but
you have to fight if you want to make your society a better place. This can
mean hand
grenades and armoured cars but it doesn’t have to if you’re not in
quite as dire as a situation as Furiosa Imperator.
I titled this piece ‘Are We the Enemies of Creation?’ as there is
a tendency amongst many people in the green movement (myself in the past
included) to think that the human race is like some sort of virus that is
inherently destructive. This obviously can be the case, and anyone sitting in a
Mad Max world watching howling dust storms rip across the earth might quite
reasonably think so! It is not necessarily so though and certainly not inherent
to how human beings are. It has a great deal to do with the nature of the
society in which people live:
For most of human existence we have lived in small egalitarian
social groups as hunter-gatherer’s having a relatively limited impact on the
environment around us (though we did manage to eat our way through various ice
age species like woolly mammoths, they must have tasted great!). It is only
relatively recently, in the past 10,000 years or so since the dawn of
agriculture that hierarchical societies with a much greater ecological impact
have developed.
Hierarchical societies depend upon a flow of resources from the
periphery to the centre in order to function. The development of agriculture
has been linked to the development of the first hierarchical societies with the
first usable surpluses in the form of agricultural produce such as grain as the
first means via which social complexity could build and one group of people
could gain leverage over another. As societies have become more socially and
technologically complex this trend has extended dramatically; from the
ownership and use of people to physically taking other people’s land empires
have been able to expand and develop.
The level of socio-economic complexity a society can sustain
depends on the net energy surplus available to it, on a solar budget the most
complex society that you’d be likely to see is something like ancient Rome. The
discovery of fossil fuels completely changed the rules of the game in this
regard. Humans discovered half a billion years of fossilised sunlight energy
and we have since burned through it in a few very brief centuries and it has
given us staggering amounts of energy surplus to play with. The result of this
has been to have an orgy of consumption and resource over extraction and
completely knock the biosphere of the planet out of kilter.
The description I give above should be taken more as an allegory
rather than as a literal historical narrative as to the development of
civilisation (as it is obviously much more complex than this).
A great deal of social good has come out of industrialism,
billions of people have been pulled out of poverty, great social transformation
has enabled a much greater level of social diversity and fluidity in societies
and the average lifespan has increased dramatically. The idea of development (as
long as its on people’s own terms) is a worthy and noble endeavour. I am no
primitivist who wants to go and live in a cave!
The main problem is that our current way of doing things cannot
continue forever and the longer that it does the worse the end outcome. Plenty
of good work is being done promoting low carbon electricity generation etc. but
at present this will still not be enough to alter the major trends of
increasing pollution which will trash the planet.
One thing that is evident in Mad Max is that almost everyone
is sick, the effects of widespread radiological poisoning are everywhere and
people's ability to have healthy offspring is majorly in doubt. There is a
certain amount of truth to the line ‘you are what you eat’. If everything
you’re eating is radioactive the answer tends to be dead fairly quickly.
Hopefully we won’t ever have to deal with the radioactive fallout from a
nuclear war but there are still plenty of toxins which are now alarmingly
prevalent in the biosphere that could lead to similar results.
Fortunately, you can avoid most of it if you eat a mainly plant
based diet where you know where the inputs come from. In other words, food
you’ve grown yourself in soil you know is at least reasonably clean. Which
brings me round to answering my initial questions that if our civilisation
collapsed what a future society might look like and might it look like Mad Max?
Any future society that has a suite of sustainable technologies
and has a social makeup that means it has a chance of lasting more than five
minutes will of course need food.
There is one type of practice which can be adopted universally and
which at the moment can help make the world a better place and in future may
well be essential to just sheer survival, Permaculture. It
is an integrated design philosophy (the name derived from ‘permanent’ and ‘agriculture’) centred around simulating or directly utilizing the patterns and
features observed in natural ecosystems to create sustainable systems that
provide for people’s own needs and to recycle their waste. It can
integrate housing, sanitation and social
organisation as well as food production, into its makeup and has
three main principles:
· Care for
the earth: Provision for all life systems to continue and multiply. This is
the first principle, because without a healthy earth, humans cannot
flourish.
· Care for
the people: Provision for people to access those resources necessary for
their existence.
· Return of
surplus: Reinvesting surpluses back into the system to provide for the
first two ethics. This includes returning waste back into the system to recycle
into usefulness.
It bypasses the resource depletion aspect of industrial
agriculture which is dependent on fossil fuels by aiming to generate a net
energy surplus in food production and reinvesting the rest. Such a philosophy
and design principle can be used in conjunction with the societal 13
commandments for a thoroughly sustainable society. It gives a possible
glimpse of a future society that definitely has a future.
You don’t necessarily have to be able to fight like Furiosa to
fight for a better society. To quote the co-founder of Permaculture Bill Mollison on
teaching Permaculture “I teach self-reliance,
the world's most subversive practice. I teach people how to grow their own
food, which is shockingly subversive. So, yes, it’s seditious. But it’s
peaceful sedition.”
We are only the enemies of creation if we destroy; hopefully we
will never have to find out what a future society trying to avoid Mad Max is
like but it can’t harm to pick up a trowel and join the fight!