Saturday, 21 March 2015

The fragility of our accomplishments (and the beauty of our dreams)





Ozymandias
by Percy Bysshe Shelley



I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: `Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear --
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.'






The imagery in this poem is a powerful reminder of the transience of even the most seemingly permanent and grand human endeavours, all things must pass, emperors and empires come and go. In our own civilisation, which is unique in its global scale and technological complexity, there are a number of visions of the future that are imagined which range from Panopticon nightmares to Jetson-esque technofantasies to post apocalyptic wastelands.

People have always been fascinated with the idea of predicting the future and imagining what it might be like and though it is nigh on impossible to predict specific future events with any degree of accuracy it is certainly possible to draw out trends. For example, it is observable that we are using resources at an unsustainable rate globally and altering the chemistry of the earth’s atmosphere with potentially disastrous results and that these trends look likely to continue. Whether or not a new hapless Arch Duke Ferdinand will get shot or other equally random black swan event is obviously much harder to say.

Unfortunately our visions of the future are just that. They are projections that are contextual to where their creator is from and say as much about that society in that moment as any potential future one. At any one point in time in a society there is a dominant narrative or narratives which form the social zeitgeist and there are established social institutions with a vested interest in the content. These institutions naturally are interested in self preservation and typically are resistant towards social change that could be perceived to undermine their position giving rise to what could be called 'societal inertia'.

For example, there has been a great disjuncture in terms of response to the threat of climate change recognised by climate scientists and political will to address the issue. Constant obfuscation and delaying tactics against regulation and the science of climate change by the fossil fuel industry and some governments mean that unfortunately we are now well on our way to living on an ice free planet with a COlevel above 500 parts per million as opposed to a pre-industrial average of 280ppm.
  
Visions of the future are sold to us all every day by a range of entities. Companies who would like us to buy their software need us first to buy into a vision of the future where i.e. ubiquitous virtual reality headsets (or whichever other silly gizmo de jour) are seen as a normal and positive thing. The same analogy can be made with a political party trying to get you to vote for them.

Having some intellectual tools to hand to examine the vision of the future they are presenting to you certainly can’t do any harm. Looking at the assumptions that underpin a view of the future can be very helpful in determining whether it is even possible, let alone desirable. The world may well be a better place with everyone having virtual reality headsets; I do however think such a future is rather unlikely as the physical resources do not exist to make it possible (more details about which can be read in article link below). The same schoolchild errors are made in a range of predictions about the future; infinite economic growth on a finite planet does still not appear to have registered with most economists, however insistent the laws of thermodynamics are.

Though it is not possible to work out the future in advance in any detail it is certainly possible to make at least an educated guess on what is more and less likely and what sort of future we might actually want. Recognising how such processes work is the first step to changing their course.

If today's knowledge of the world is compared to that of the past the differences are astounding. As our technical knowledge of the world has increased so it increases further, in the nature of the exponential function. There is also no guarantee that information gathering will carry on and that it won’t be lost - if anything history offers a picture strongly counter to this. It seems quite plausible that the future will be more localised, with economic growth a thing of the past and that much of our current extremely complex and brittle technology may not function in future due to a mixture of economic, social and resource constraint issues (again article link for details). Whether or not we allow ourselves to descend into a 1984 or MadMax type scenario will in large part depend on our actions collectively.

Life and human artifacts are always transitory to some degree but it appears that the main artifacts we are leaving for our descendants, if we are not careful, are going to be hazardous mounds of waste and very little of our own accomplishments and accumulated labours other than a series of Ozymandias style relics.

Imaginings of the future can as much serve as cautionary tales of what we should best avoid in the present as well as what we should strive for; dreaming is as much preventing the nightmares from becoming actual as it is making real our utopias.

To my eyes much of the valiant efforts over the past century of  people campaigning and fighting for equality and against greed and militarism have in large part kept the nightmares at bay as much as we have made the world into some sort of utterly new paradigm.

One of the most fun ways that people engage creatively with possible futures is through sub cultures like ‘Steampunk’, an aesthetic largely based on Victorian futurism ideas. One writer I rather like John Michael Greer has put forward 7 sustainable technologies that he thinks will be around in a few hundred years and I’ve listed them below with a Steampunk theme.

Dream about what sort of future you might like to see and start working towards it, it can be rather fun!

The future could close in like the jaws of some great slathering beast or spread before you like the vista of an open road into a blossoming land of new possibility.


The choice is yours...



1. Organic intensive gardening:





2. Solar thermal technologies:












3. Sustainable wood 
:

3. Sustainable wood heating:




















4. Sustainable healthcare:
4. Sustainable Healthcare




5. Letterpress printing and its related technologies:

















6. Low-tech shortwave radio

6. Low-tech shortwave radio:




7. Computer-free mathematics:






Who knows what houses people might live in...

















or what might be fashionable to wear..



















































The Parasite

A guest post from a friend & illustrator Ross Howell:

Arthur C. Clarke was an excellent Science Fiction writer, one of the best. He wrote excellent stories from great tracts to relatively short ones such as  "The Parasite". If you've not read any of his stories I would strongly recommend them, they are very imaginative and often have a somewhat dark twist at the end. 

One of the best ways a story can be brought to life is through subtle illustrations that bring the words to the fore.

I will from time to time pop up the odd illustration either alongside Cora's work or of my own. Tune in any time you like and have a peruse!

Below is an extract from "The Parasite" to give you a feel for what I am proposing:

"'Omega doesn't belong to our age: he's somewhere in the future, immensely far ahead of us. For a while I thought he must be one of the last men - that's why I gave him his name. But now I'm not sure; perhaps he belongs to and age when there are a myriad different races of men, scattered all over the universe - some still ascending, others sinking into decay. His people, wherever and whenever they may be, have reached the heights and fallen from them into depths the beasts can never know. There's a sense of evil about him, Jack - the real evil that most of us never meet in all our lives. Yet sometimes I feel almost sorry for him, because I know what has made him the thing he is.

'Have you ever wondered, Jack, what the human race will do when science has discovered everything, when there are no more worlds to be explored, when all the stars have given up their secrets? Omega is one of the answers. I hope he's not the only one, for if so everything we've striven for is in vain. I hope that he and his race are an isolated cancer in a still healthy universe, but I can never be sure.

'They have pampered their bodies until they are useless, and too late they have discovered their mistake. Perhaps they have thought, as some men have thought, that they could live by intellect alone. And perhaps they are immortal, and that must be their real damnation. Through the ages their minds have been corroding in their feeble bodies, seeking some release from their intolerable boredom. They have found it at last in the only way they can, by sending back their minds to an earlier, more virile age, and becoming parasites on the emotions of others."